What numbers in Bihar Assembly look like after Nitish Kumar switches alliance

Uncertainty that loomed over the future of Mahagathbandhan in Bihar ended as the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) snapped ties with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and returned to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Nitish Kumar submitted his resignation to the Bihar Governor and later staked claim to form the next government in the state, in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

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Nitish Kumar will be taking the oath as the Bihar chief minister for the ninth time. He formed the Bihar government in alliance with Lalu Yadav's RJD, the Congress and Left parties in 2022 after snapping ties with the NDA. Nitish Kumar is also a key member of the Opposition's INDIA bloc.

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Here's a look at the composition of Bihar Assembly today:

As of now, the RJD is the single-largest party in the Bihar Assembly. The Bihar Assembly has a total of 243 members. Here's what the party-wise composition looks like as per data available on Bihar Vidhan Sabha website:

The RJD has 79 MLAs

The JD(U) has 45 MLAs

The BJP has 78 MLAs

The CPI(M-L)(L) has 12 MLAs

The Congress has 19 MLAs

The HAM (S) has 4 MLAs

The AIMIM has 1 MLA

The CPI(M) has 2 MLAs

The CPI has 2 MLAs

There's one Independent MLA

A political party needs 122 (half) of the total 243 seats to form government in Bihar. The Mahagathbandhan in Bihar had 159 MLAs in total.

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What if JD(U) pulls out?

Nitish Kumar's JD(U), which has 45 MLAs in the Bihar assembly, is forming the government in alliance with the BJP, which has 78 MLAs. Both parties together will have 123 MLAs, just one more than the half-way mark required to form the government. The Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM [S]) had also joined the NDA in July 2023, making the task easier for Nitish Kumar.

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If the RJD plans to stake claim for the government in alliance with the Left parties, then the coalition would need eight more MLAs to come into power in the state. Without the JD(U), Lalu's party RJD, along with the Left, would make 114 MLAs — eight short of the halfway mark.