Rajya Sabha Polls: NDA four seats short of majority in Upper House. What it means for BJP

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bagged ten of the fifteen Rajya Sabha seats that went to polls on February 27 amid cross-voting reports in Uttar Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh. 

The BJP won eight of the ten seats in Uttar Pradesh and one of the three seats in Karnataka. The most unexpected outcome, however, came from Himachal Pradesh, where the saffron party's Harsh Mahajan bagged the lone Rajya Sabha seat, defeating Congress party's Abhishek Manu Singhvi after six rebel Congress members cross-voted.

Apart from the fifteen seats that went to polls on February 27, as many as 41 candidates were elected unopposed. Overall, the BJP bagged 30 of the 56 Rajya Sabha seats set to fall vacant in April from 15 States.

The numbers

These wins take BJP's tally in the Upper House to 97, three less than 100. This also means the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will now have 117 members, four less than the 121 majority mark in the Upper House.

The majority mark in the 245-member Rajya Sabha is 123. However, five seats are vacant - four in Jammu and Kashmir, which has been under the President's Rule, and one in the nominated member category. Thus, the strength of the House is reduced to 240 and the majority mark to 121.

Also Read : Rajya Sabha Elections and 'cross-voting': What kept UP, Himachal and Karnataka on the edge?

This also means that the BJP remains the single-largest party in the Rajya Sabha with 97 members, including five nominated members who joined the party, followed by the Congress with 29 members, the Trinamool Congress with 13, the DMK and the AAP with 10 each. The JD and the YSRCP have nine Rajya Sabha seats each, while the BRS has seven, the RJD has six, the CPI (M) has five, and the AIADMK and the JD(U) have four members each.

What it means

Since Lok Sabha elections are due in two months, the NDA is expected to cross the majority mark in 2026, when the next election cycle for Rajya Sabha takes place. This assumes significance since the BJP-led NDA has enjoyed a full majority in the Lok Sabha since 2014, leading to the smooth passage of legislations and amendments. But not so in the Rajya Sabha.

Before 2019, many bills, such as the land reform and Triple Talaq bills, were blocked by the Opposition in the Upper House. The land reform bill has not been re-introduced; the government went ahead and passed the bill against Triple Talaq in its present second term.

In fact, in the present term that started in 2019, the Union government has managed to get crucial bills, such as the abrogation of Article 370 and the abolition of Triple Talaq, passed in the upper House with the support of neutral parties such as Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy's, YSR Congress.

A minority in the Rajya Sabha would further push the Opposition and the Congress to a corner.