Taiwan Election Piles Pressure on Delicate U.S.-China Ties

Voters on Saturday gave the Democratic Progressive Party four more years in power, this time by choosing as president-elect the current vice president, Lai Ching-te, whom China condemns as an inveterate agitator for Taiwan’s independence—an outcome that Beijing has vowed to prevent, by force if necessary.

Though expected, Lai’s win sharpens global attention on this democratically self-ruled island and its outsize significance in the strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China, which has described Taiwan as the most sensitive issue in its relationship with Washington.

President Biden showed he is mindful of Beijing’s red lines, answering a reporter’s question on Saturday about the Taiwan election by saying: “We do not support independence." The State Department separately congratulated Lai and said the U.S. would work with him to deepen ties with Taipei—remarks that officials said were consistent with past American assurances to Beijing.

China, meanwhile, sought to undermine Lai’s legitimacy, dismissing his victory as unrepresentative of mainstream opinion in Taiwan. Instead, Beijing vowed to move forward with its quest to take control of the island, while rebuking the State Department for sending “a gravely wrong signal to the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces."

The exchange underscored the brittleness of the continuing U.S.-China rapprochement, despite a series of diplomatic exchanges in recent weeks aimed at minimizing points of bilateral tension.

Beijing is also expected to demonstrate its anger with Lai’s election by stepping up pressure on the economic, military and diplomatic fronts—including tariff measures, combat drills and increased efforts to squeeze Taipei’s ties with other governments, according to U.S. and Taiwanese officials, as well as defense analysts.

Since Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping emerged from a November summit with an agreement to steady relations after years of plummeting ties, the two governments have held discussions on military communications, counternarcotics, technology controls and Taiwan—a well-acknowledged flashpoint.

Lai’s win now puts that fledgling deal to the test.

The current pause in tensions is tactical, driven by short-term objectives, current and former U.S. officials said. While Washington and Beijing are competing for global pre-eminence, neither side wants a crisis, with Xi trying to revive China’s listless economy and the Biden administration contending with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Now, with Lai preparing to take office in May, keeping a lid on tensions will require restraint from Beijing, Washington and Taipei to avoid repeating previous cycles of provocation and reaction, according to the officials, as well as foreign-policy experts.

Washington’s early statements on the Taiwan election “set a tone, and the basic idea is to de-escalate," said Chen Ming-chi, chief executive of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a Taiwanese military-backed think tank. “This time, probably, China is also willing to cooperate," said Chen, who predicts that Xi will pay more attention to domestic issues.

In his victory speech, Lai reiterated a campaign pledge to uphold the status quo and promised to work with his political rivals, who have taken a more accommodating stance toward Beijing. The ruling DPP lost control of the legislature after Saturday’s vote—limiting Lai’s ability to set Taiwan onto a drastically different path.

That is unlikely to be enough for Beijing, which has described Lai and the DPP as separatists who are steering Taiwan toward conflict. The ruling party champions a unique Taiwanese identity separate from China and is seen as traditionally pro-independence.

While Washington, Taiwan’s main defense partner, has built productive ties with the island’s current president, Tsai Ing-wen, some U.S. officials see Lai as more inclined to push the limits on independence rhetoric. Several times during the campaign, Lai’s remarks drew criticism from Beijing and stirred concern in Washington.

Members of Congress, especially Republicans skeptical of Beijing, have been staunch backers of the DPP government, seeing it as more willing to stand up to China, and are likely to pressure the Biden administration to take a tougher line on any Chinese threats. Mike Johnson, the Louisiana Republican who is current House speaker, met last Tuesday with Taiwan’s chief representative in Washington.

A misstep by Lai, or military muscle-flexing by Beijing, could upend the balance, prompting Washington to rebuke Lai or respond to China with a show of force.

Beijing is calibrating its response to try to get Washington to prevent Lai from pressing the limits of China’s tolerance, said Yun Sun of the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank. Beijing wants “to send a message, to urge the U.S. to co-manage Lai with China," she said.

The Biden administration, in welcoming Lai’s election, said the U.S. wants to see stability in the region and “the peaceful resolution of differences, free from coercion and pressure," between Taipei and Beijing. Washington also sent two retired officials—former national security adviser Stephen Hadley and former deputy secretary of state James Steinberg—to Taiwan on Sunday to meet leading local politicians, including President Tsai, in line with past practice after Taiwanese presidential elections.

The last surge in U.S.-China discord over Taiwan came in 2022, when then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei. Beijing responded by running extensive military drills around the island and cutting off most contacts with the U.S.

Since then, the Chinese military has maintained high-tempo operations, flying planes, sailing vessels and, more recently, sending high-altitude balloons over Taiwan. A recent personnel shake-up in China’s defense establishment, however, has spurred speculation of a high-level purge, and raised questions over the Chinese military’s combat readiness.

Lai’s win likely means that Taipei will continue to step up defense coordination with Washington, a potential irritant in U.S.-China relations. But Lai’s government must negotiate likely legislative roadblocks—given the absence of a DPP lawmaking majority—in pursuing policies that the U.S. sees as fundamental to Taiwan’s defense.

Taiwan’s new legislature, in which the DPP and the main opposition Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party, are closely matched, could reduce funding for purchasing the antiship mines, missiles and other asymmetric weaponry that the U.S. says Taiwan needs to fend off Beijing.

Lawmakers could also try to amend the current DPP government’s plan to extend military conscription for all young men to 12 months, from the current four months, which some military experts have argued is insufficient.

Write to Chun Han Wong at chunhan.wong@wsj.com and Charles Hutzler at charles.hutzler@wsj.com