Trump dives into political unknown with tariff plan

The dark economic picture that emerged Thursday triggered alarm among some Trump allies and Republican strategists, who worry the president’s trade policies could backfire with voters.

“We’re playing a game of chicken right now," said GOP pollster Wes Anderson. “The Republican base is going to give the president a fairly long runway and the Democratic base will give him none. The middle, that’s a different thing."

Some voters say the tariffs are a political risk.

“I didn’t expect him to tariff as many people as he is tariffing, and as harsh as he is tariffing these countries," said Benjamin Davis, a 20-year-old college student in Pittsburgh who voted for Trump. Davis expects the tariffs to hurt Republicans in the midterms, but predicts an upswing in the economy by 2028.

“This is probably gonna be a good play long term," Davis said, “but short term, it’s definitely gonna hurt us."

Trump is betting that disruptions will be brief and manageable as he works to reshape the U.S. economy and bring back overseas manufacturing jobs. Aides and allies argue that he is a dealmaker who will be able to use the tariffs to negotiate with other countries, strengthen national security and improve America’s economic position—everyone just has to be patient.

Yet the shocks threaten to undermine Trump’s central appeal in last year’s election. His vow to bring down prices is in jeopardy given how U.S. importers are likely to pass along increased costs to consumers. The market fallout affects not only active investors but millions of Americans with 401(k) retirement accounts.

Some outside advisers to Trump have for weeks privately expressed worry about his fixation on tariffs and have urged the president to emphasize tax cuts and other ways to get more money into people’s pockets, according to people familiar with the discussions.

“These tariffs are a huge political unknown, and the GOP now has to get a tax-cut package through the Congress this summer and add political certainty and growth for the business community," said Republican consultant Scott Reed.

Consumer confidence already had been falling before Trump’s announcement and there have been signs of dissatisfaction over the way he and billionaire Elon Musk have executed a vast plan to slash the size of the federal government, upsetting some services everyday Americans rely on. The GOP faced a costly rebuke in a judicial election Tuesday in Wisconsin and underperformed in two special congressional races in Florida.

Democrats, who are characterizing tariffs as a broad tax hike, have found some footing after struggling for months to find a cohesive argument against Trump. “There is a real opportunity to have a contrast argument about what was promised and what was delivered," said Steve Schale, a party strategist in Florida.

While political strategists caution against predicting too much about the 2026 election climate, Republicans have a thin majority in the House and Senate, and midterm voters tend to take out their frustrations on the party that controls Washington.

Trump has long promised to deliver on his pledge to hike tariffs—a word he has described as the “most beautiful in the world"—and on Wednesday announced his sweeping plans to enact a minimum baseline of 10% tariffs on all trading partners, as well as reciprocal tariffs on over 180 countries and territories.

Just before the stock market opened Thursday, Trump declared victory, likening it to a successful operation. “The prognosis is that the patient will be far stronger, bigger, better, and more resilient than ever before," he said on social media. Stocks, however, tumbled to their worst single day wipeout since the Covid pandemic in 2020, news Trump glossed over.

“I think it’s going very well," the president told reporters as he left the White House Thursday afternoon for Florida, where he was to attend a dinner to mark a golf tournament hosted at his Miami club. “The country is going to boom."

White House spokesman Kush Desai said the trade actions reflect a commitment “to restoring American greatness for our industries and workers—not to indulging mindless political hypotheticals."

Still, on Capitol Hill, where longstanding Republican opposition to tariffs has been muted under Trump, those worries were spreading.

“When Smoot-Hawley put on their tariffs in the early 1930s, we lost the House and the Senate for 60 years," said Sen. Rand Paul (R., Ky.), referring to protectionist measures signed into law by Republican President Herbert Hoover.

Rep. Don Bacon (R., Neb.) said he could support reciprocal tariffs, which match what other countries have imposed. “But some of this looks way beyond reciprocal." He said tariffs hurt the poorest Americans through higher costs and that free trade should be the goal.

Some Trump supporters said they would remain behind the president.

“Anything to help bring more jobs for Americans back to this country," said Mark Bright, 51, a cable technician in Virginia Beach, Va., who voted for Trump. Bright said inflation was a top issue for him in 2024, but he now thinks prices will stay high in the short term. “Overall, the short term pain will be worth having a more fair trade with the other countries," he said.

Nataly McCarthy, a 39-year-old office manager from Southampton, N.Y., voted for Trump in the past two elections and was glad to see him impose higher tariffs. “I think it’s fair game," she said. “They charge us, we charge them."

“I’m surprised he didn’t go higher," she said.

Write to Alex Leary at alex.leary@wsj.com, Meridith McGraw at Meridith.McGraw@WSJ.com and Jasmine Li at jasmine.li@wsj.com