Why Amethi said bye-bye to Rahul Gandhi

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The people who gathered at the shop of Brijesh Kumar, who runs a spectacles business, also refer to the past election trends which should have raised enough warning flags. In the 2014 general election, Rahul Gandhi’s margin of victory fell to a little over 107,000 votes from 370,000 votes in 2009. In the 2017 state assembly elections, the Congress lost in each of the five assembly constituencies in Amethi. It was nowhere to be seen during the Panchayat elections in 2018. The conclusion: the poor election management in Amethi is indicative of the Congress’ wider decimation in states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where the party witnessed a washout despite winning state elections less than four months ago.

According to Akhilesh Pratap Singh, a senior Lucknow-based leader and spokesperson of the Congress, the lack of foot soldiers who could campaign for the party, coupled with the BJP’s dominance of television and social media, were major reasons for the electoral loss of the party. “We were fighting a moral battle... the (popular) support for Modi is grounded in astha (faith), which does not see any merit or demerit," he said.

Gandhi family legacy

From infrastructure to restoring agricultural land, the Gandhis have indeed done a fair share of work and managed to change the face of Amethi, but the youth of today has no attachment to this history of development, said Sudhir Panwar, professor at the University of Lucknow and a former member of state planning board. “When the Jat farmer leader, Ajit Singh, lost in the 2014 general election, there was anger in the villages of western Uttar Pradesh. But after he lost this time, there is none. The same goes for the Congress in Amethi. Ordinary workers of the Congress are also deserting the party since it is not in a position to benefit them in any way," Panwar said.

The shaky foundation of the Congress campaign compares starkly with the BJP, which took care of minute details. Smriti Irani regularly attended religious congregations held by women in the villages. Before polling day, local television channels beamed visuals of her running around to douse the fire in a crop field.

According to Vivek Mishra, a young booth-level worker of the BJP, dislodging Gandhi from Amethi took months of hard work. “The BJP fought these elections at a micro level as if it was Panchayat elections. We worked as social workers, helping people enrol under the Ayushman Bharat (the PM’s flagship health insurance) scheme, and ensured that farmers received the PM-Kisan money transfers."

That is not all. Polarization on religious lines was also an integral part of the election strategy. “The beef eaters had to be taught a lesson... who else but the BJP can protect the interest of Hindus?" asked Rajwant Singht, a 65-year-old resident of Gauriganj.

Hrishik Pandey, 21, from Pure Dhana Pandey village in Jais, who voted for the first time, said: “Hindus have been suppressed for far too long... see, Rahul also knew that he will lose, so he ran away to Wayanad (in Kerala) where Hindus are in minority... but don’t you think southern states are odd. Why did they vote the other way?"

The way ahead

With uncertainty looming large on the entire Congress parivar in the aftermath of the defeat, huddled discussions have become common among the few workers of India’s grand old party who line the corridors of Nehru Bhavan, the party’s state headquarters in Lucknow. Rahul Gandhi has insisted he wants to quit as party president.

Most in the Nehru Bhavan corridor, however, think that Gandhi will be back in charge: “The party will collapse without him."

According to one, the attitude of local leaders in Amethi—shisha upar karke chalna (those who commute in cars with the windows rolled up)—and the BJP’s effective propaganda that damaged the Gandhi family’s reputation were the major reasons why the party lost Amethi. “The campaign to call the PM a thief (chowkidar chor hai) also seems to have backfired."

In hindsight, the 2019 results show where the opposition went wrong: by directing all their criticism against Narendra Modi, they also aided in shifting the focus away from other pressing issues like farm distress and rising unemployment. That is nowhere truer than in the dusty heartland of Uttar Pradesh.

An overwhelming 47% of respondents in Uttar Pradesh preferred Narendra Modi as PM, shows a recent CSDS Lokniti post-poll survey. For voters, the survey said, party or candidates mattered very little—their vote was for Modi, whose absence would have cost the BJP up to 12% of its vote share in the populous state. The Modi wave, following the Balakot retaliatory airstrikes against Pakistan, which sealed Modi’s image as a decisive leader, not only swept away the chances of Gandhi in Amethi but also undid the caste arithmetic which the mahagathbandhan (grand coalition) of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party banked on.

While the saffron party’s organizational might and grassroots reach certainly were factors, one also needs to understand the mass psychology when it comes to the electorate’s fascination with Modi, said K. K. Kailash, who teaches political science at the University of Hyderabad. “The only thing which could have made a difference, NYAY, which was promised as an answer to the politics of mandir (temple) and mandal (the Mandal Commission), was announced a little too late," he added.

The Congress had hoped that the road to Delhi in 2019 would be paved via Uttar Pradesh. Instead, Uttar Pradesh may have shown the party a road to its future, if it chooses to read the signs.

The Amethi defeat has clearly stung the party out of slumber, inviting a flurry of resignations from state units—a meltdown which it has not witnessed since 1998 when Sonia Gandhi first took over as party president.

“The crisis is unique in the sense that no one expected this situation in the history of the Congress: consecutive miserable defeats," said Badri Narayan, a social historian and professor at the Govind Ballabh Pant Social Science Institute in Prayagraj. From the block to the central level, most leaders in the party are part-time politicians—they lack commitment for the organization, he said. “The Congress needs to acquire a new body and new soul in order to respond."