Saxony-Anhalt election: AfD doubles vote share to 44% - Why far-right surge matters for Friedrich Merz and Germany

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was projected to win a strong victory in a regional election Sunday, news agency AP said.

AfD won 44.2 percent of the vote, exit polls for the ARD broadcaster suggested on Sunday. That is more than twice the 17.4 percent for the incumbent centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

AfD's 35-year-old candidate for governor of the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, Ulrich Siegmund hailed what he called a historic showing and said that Germany's unpopular leader, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, had helped his campaign.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel also hailed the “historic” result, which has given the far-right party a ‌clear mandate to govern.

It was, however, not immediately clear whether it would be able to fulfill its ambition of forming the country's first far-right state government since World War II, the news agency said.

Anti-migration party

Ulrich Siegmund told ARD public broadcaster that "we have written history." Voters, he said, had sent a signal that "things cannot carry on like this."

It was "also a signal toward Berlin," Siegmund said.

Alternative for Germany, or AfD, went into the vote seeking an absolute majority in the state legislature to govern on its own. That would overcome the so-called firewall of mainstream parties' refusal to work with AfD, but it was unclear after polls closed whether it would happen.

A first state government would be the biggest prize in the anti-migration party's 13-year history, at a time of widespread discontent with an unpopular national government that has yet to persuade voters that it can get the country's sluggish economy moving.

Whether or not AfD can form a government, the projected result is a blow to Merz, whose center-right party has led Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years. Unlike other countries in Europe, modern Germany hasn't yet had a far-right or right-wing populist party leading a national, state or major-city government.

AfD's regional branch in Saxony-Anhalt is one of several classified by the domestic intelligence agency as a proven right-wing extremist group. AfD vehemently rejects accusations of extremism.

What exit polls predicted?

Projections for ARD and ZDF public television, based on exit polls and early counting, put AfD at around 44 per cent of the vote, more than double its showing five years ago in the region of 2.1 million people west of Berlin.

That was far ahead of the Christian Democratic Union, the centre-right party of Merz that has led the state for 24 years, which was seen polling 18.5 per cent and losing about half its support. The Left Party and the centre-left Social Democrats and Greens were seen taking around 9 per cent each.

It was unclear whether the BSW party would get the 5 per cent of the vote needed to win seats. The projections put AfD at least marginally short of an absolute majority, though that could change.

A visibly disappointed incumbent governor, Sven Schulze, congratulated AfD on becoming the state's strongest political force and said that "we as the CDU will also have to deal with this result," without specifying how.

‘A very difficult result for us’: CDU leader

Franziska Hoppermann, the national general secretary of Merz's party, said that it was "a very difficult result for us." She and others rejected the idea of backing off their refusal to deal with AfD.

Germany's 16 states have extensive powers, for example in overseeing security matters and running the education system.

Siegmund has listed among his top priorities "the deportation of people who are illegal, a deportation offensive and above all dropping the incentives for why people come here and exploit our social system." He wants to initiate a long process to withdraw Saxony-Anhalt from the regional public broadcaster, citing concerns about “disinformation.”

The party’s anti-“woke” agenda also includes promises to replace LGBTQ pride rainbow flags at public schools with the German standard and to change history teaching to lessen the emphasis on Hitler’s Third Reich, Al Jazeera reported.

AfD's far-right agenda

AfD in Saxony-Anhalt wants to allow home schooling, which so far isn't permitted in Germany. It pledges to ban schools from officially raising the rainbow flag and ensure they fly the national flag.

To replace migrant workers, the AfD wants to lure back German expatriates, while offering “baby bonuses” for families to reverse the shrinking population in the small state of 2.1 million.

AfD opposes taxpayers' money being "given away" to Ukraine and says it would push to lift sanctions against Russia, but that isn't a matter state governments can decide.

(With inputs from agencies)