For more than a year the West’s effort to help Ukraine has run between two tracks: deny Russia a victory but avoid a direct war between it and NATO. Ukraine wants more, and applied to join the NATO alliance in September 2022. It will be denied for now. Instead, as NATO prepares for its summit in Vilnius on July 11th and 12th, Western leaders are aiming to give Ukraine lasting “security guarantees". What might they be and will they make a difference?