What to know about the civil war in Syria
Summary
Rebel forces battling Syria’s Iran- and Russian-backed regime captured the city of Aleppo, a shift in power in the civil war that has been going on for more than a decade.
Islamist rebels launched a large-scale attack on Syrian government forces, causing the largest shift in the balance of power since 2020 in Syria, where more than a decade of war has taken place. Battling Iran- and Russian-backed regime forces, the rebels in a lightning offensive captured Aleppo, which was Syria’s largest city before the war, and then advanced south to the strategic and symbolically important city of Hama. Here’s what to know.
What has happened so far in Syria’s civil war?
The war broke out in 2011, when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime violently suppressed protests that had spread across the country during the Arab Spring. That triggered an armed insurrection against the government, parts of which morphed into an Islamist uprising.
The northern city of Aleppo was a center of that armed rebellion, and the opposition forces claimed parts of the city in 2012. It took the Syrian regime four years, with military support from Iran and its allies and later Russian air power, to oust rebels from their strongholds in Aleppo. While President Assad’s forces eventually clawed back control over much of the territory, several rebel groups maintained control of parts of the divided country.
Who is fighting whom?
The rebels fighting the Assad regime are backed by Turkey and are largely made up of Sunnis. The main rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is a Sunni Islamist group that the Trump administration designated as a terrorist organization in 2018. Some rebel groups are backed by Turkey.
Meanwhile, Russia and Shiite Iran are backing Assad. In the wider Middle East, Iran and its allies are competing for power and influence against Sunni states, including the Saudi monarchy. Within Syria, Assad has drawn his support from the minority Alawite sect. In the northeast, Western countries have supported Kurdish fighters, which Turkey opposes.
Why has the war intensified?
The surprise rebel offensive is, in part, a consequence of new wars that have erupted outside Syria’s borders, leaving Assad’s allies—Iran, Russia and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia—weakened and distracted. The rebels also took advantage of disaffection in the Syrian military, which is filled with badly paid soldiers.
Who are the rebels and their backers?
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is an offshoot of the Nusra Front, a onetime affiliate of al Qaeda, and is funded by Turkey. The group has run a statelet of its own in Syria’s northern Idlib province in recent years. Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, the leader of the group, has turned it into a disciplined fighting force, with an ideology that blends Islamism and nationalism.
Turkey has historically backed the opposition against Assad since the start of the 2011 uprising against him, and now it supports some Syrian rebel groups in its own fight against Kurdish militants on its southern border.
Are the rebels linked to Islamic State?
Jawlani, the HTS leader, broke with Islamic State in 2012. He cut ties with al Qaeda in 2016, and since then has fought both organizations in bloody campaigns. Instead of the banner of Islam, HTS troops choose to fight under the Syrian flag that dates back to the republic that existed before the 1963 Baath Party revolution that eventually brought the Assad family to power.
What role does the U.S. play?
The U.S. has sanctioned the Assad regime for using chemical weapons against civilians during the conflict, among other things. The first Trump administration launched airstrikes against Syrian military assets in 2018.
The U.S., which maintains a force of around 900 troops in southeast Syria to defend against Islamic State fighters, has supported the Kurds in northern Syria but has said it has nothing to do with the rebel offensive. U.S. officials fear getting dragged deeper into the conflict if its troops stationed there are attacked, or if the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces is targeted by Turkey.
Who supports the Syrian government?
Russia and Iran, longtime supporters of Assad in the civil war, have come to his aid since the most recent rebel assault began. Russian warplanes launched strikes in opposition-held territory, and Iran’s foreign minister flew to Damascus, where he pledged support in the fight against the rebels. Assad traveled to Moscow in the wake of the recent rebel offensive, pleading for more assistance.
The opposition’s assault is a strategic setback for Moscow and Tehran, both more vulnerable because of their entanglements in other wars, with Russia pouring resources into the conflict in Ukraine and Iran’s militia allies in the Middle East under pressure from an Israeli military offensive.
Will President Assad’s regime fall?
The Assad family has clung to power for more than 40 years, surviving by brutally suppressing uprisings and working with allies to fight rebellions. The rebel seizure of Aleppo and Hama in quick succession suggests Assad is vulnerable. The rebels have vowed to take the strategic city of Homs next, cutting off Assad from his coastal strongholds in the west of the country.
Write to Jared Malsin at jared.malsin@wsj.com
