Why Kamala could win
Summary
Donald Trump could have closed the deal with his acceptance speech. He didn’t.
An assumption in Republican circles is that Kamala Harris can’t win, and it is reasonable to think so. She becomes the carrier of the Biden economic burdens; her performance in office has been poor; her favorables are worse than Mr. Biden’s; she is a committed woman of the left and likely no match for the ascendant, post-assassination-attempt Donald Trump.
All true. Focus, however, on another assumption: that this is Mr. Trump’s election to lose. Also true, but the smart money won’t skip past those last two words—“to lose."
Of the cascade of recent historic events, history may record the most determinative was Mr. Trump’s acceptance speech at the Republican convention.
The idea that it was Mr. Trump’s election to lose emerged after the assassination attempt. Mr. Trump survived, rose triumphant and sat at the convention looking like a man who by God’s grace was alive to carry on. With Mr. Biden refusing to admit reality about himself or his election prospects, and his party in disarray, Mr. Trump had been handed the election on a silver platter.
All he had to do was deliver a statesmanlike acceptance speech and pocket the election, with or without Mr. Biden in the race. Instead, once past his moving words about the attempt on his life, Mr. Trump gave a shopworn, meandering stump speech. After all his travails, controversies and wars with the Democrats, this was a chance to show himself to the entire country as the president. Instead he gave them something familiar—Trump.
If Mr. Trump couldn’t pull himself together to deliver a solid 60-minute case for his candidacy then, there is no reason to expect he will do so in the campaign ahead.
This election will be decided by independent and undecided voters in seven states. Whatever they knew about Mr. Trump before the assassination attempt is what they’re going to know for the next several months. Which means that Ms. Harris, for all her liabilities, has a good chance of making this election competitive. She could win.
Track records matter in political forecasting. An established reality is that Trump elections are close (including down the ballot). With the millions of votes cast in 2016, Mr. Trump barely beat Hillary Clinton. After four years as president, Mr. Trump narrowly lost to Mr. Biden, a multiple loser in previous White House runs. What reasons has Mr. Trump given voters—despite that golden convention opportunity—to give him a landslide victory in 2024?
Mr. Trump has proved he possesses political gifts. Amid unending assault, he has shown resilience, adaptability, fortitude and now even courage. I am emphasizing his convention speech because I think it reveals a potentially fatal Trump flaw.
Donald Trump is the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of American politics. Most of the time, he displays unusual talents to advance his own interests. But once in front of a big crowd—even the convention coronation—a switch flips and he becomes Mr. Hyde, uncontrollably going off-script and raving about whatever enters his mind.
An example: Notwithstanding abortion, the campaign’s biggest issue remains the unpopular Biden-Harris economy and inflation. Mr. Trump’s economic record when president, as compiled toward the end of his term by his Council of Economic Advisers, is impressive. But Mr. Trump struggles to present his own economic achievement with anything resembling clarity. It’s a hodgepodge of claims.
The off-script discontinuity of Mr. Trump’s presentation style, at times entertaining, didn’t matter when his opponent was the even more discontinuous Mr. Biden. Ms. Harris may yet give voters her signature word salads, but with the stakes this high, don’t bet on it. She’ll fix that.
During the silent Biden coup, no name came up more often—and no major figure said less—than Barack Obama. Turns out the job fell to Nancy Pelosi, the most skilled politician of our times at getting people to go where they don’t want to go. But the Obamas—Barack and Michelle—will be back.
One of Mr. Trump’s most remarkable recent achievements has been gaining the support of black and Hispanic voters, especially younger males. That, too, is the product of his record at creating private job opportunities. To win, Ms. Harris needs to pull those voters back to the Democratic Party. She can’t easily do that, but the still-charismatic Mr. Obama can.
I would look for the Obama sphinx to re-emerge in the campaign as a Harris proxy to talk black men back into the party. Michelle will join the candidate in reaching out to suburban women. If Mr. Trump loses, the Obamas will ascend to the Democratic Mt. Rushmore. And maintain an open phone line to the Oval Office.
The Harris campaign plans a nonstop ad hominem assault on Mr. Trump. Convicted, “will take us back" and all that. The rationale for going low is it will make Mr. Trump go even lower against “the first black woman to run for president." That in turn will be the offset against Mr. Trump’s gains with the public from the assassination attempt.
Mr. Trump had a chance to close the deal with his acceptance speech. He didn’t. If Trump-rally mode is as good as it’s going to get, she has a chance.
Write henninger@wsj.com.
