Gavin Newsom’s yacht may be coming in after President Biden foundered last week in his debate with Donald Trump. Some Democrats are calling to replace the incumbent, and betting markets put Mr. Newsom as the favorite alternative.
But would the slicker-than-palm-oil governor stand any better shot of defeating Mr. Trump? Hard to believe. It’s telling that Californians have a lower opinion of their governor than of their stumbling president, in large part because Mr. Newsom’s ham-handed policies are making the state unlivable. The French Laundry liberal also oozes disdain for commoners who disagree with him.
His high-handed insistence on imposing his supposedly superior values on everyone else—from transgender lessons in kindergarten to electric-vehicle mandates—would likely repel more voters in swing states than Mr. Trump’s boorish bombast.
Consider Mr. Newsom’s State of the State speech last week. He compared the current moment with 1939, when the “world was on edge as fascism spread its hate and destruction through Europe.” He isn’t worried about the rise in antisemitism or geopolitical threats on multiple fronts including Russia, Iran and China. He’s alarmed by conservatives who criticize his policies.
“We face another extraordinary moment in history—for California, for the country, and for the world. We are presented with a choice between a society that embraces our values and a world darkened by division and discrimination,” he proclaimed. “The California way of life is under attack. For conservatives and delusional California bashers, their success depends on our failure. They want to impeach the very things that have made us successful, as a tactic to turn America toward a darker future. They do so in the name of ‘liberty’ and ‘freedom.’ ”
In Mr. Newsom’s view, the gravest threat to democracy comes from Americans who want the freedom to buy gasoline-powered cars, walk their dogs without worrying about being assaulted by vagrants, have some input into what their kids learn in school, keep more of their tax dollars, and not be forced to join a union. What malevolent people.
“They want to roll back social progress, social justice, racial justice, economic justice, clean air, clean water and basic fundamental fairness,” Mr. Newsom continued. “They would cleave America from the principles of freedom and the rule of law. And in the process, throw our economy and, in many respects, society as we’ve known it, into chaos.”
The speech was far more divisive than any Mr. Trump has given. It isn’t a sign of strength. Demonizing political opponents is a common tactic of insecure leaders. Mr. Newsom is desperately trying to deflect attention from California’s manifest problems, including crime, homelessness, high taxes and a slowing economy.
He claimed in his speech that California’s rich pay less of their income in taxes than Texas’ poor. Not true.
He said California has a lower homicide rate than most states, including Florida and Texas. Partially true. Florida’s homicide rate is lower than California’s, but Texas’ is higher. Regardless, homicides make up a very small number of violent crimes. California’s violent-crime rate is about 30% higher than the national average and double Florida’s—and the difference has been increasing in recent years.
He said “no state has done as much as California in addressing the pernicious problem of homelessness.” It’s true no state has spent as much. The state auditor in April reported that California spent $24 billion on some 30 programs over the past five years addressing vagrancy while homelessness increased by about 30,000.
Mr. Newsom called California the “tentpole of the American economy.” It’s wobbling. Employment in California has declined by 113,471 over the past year and is 403,665 lower than before the pandemic. Blame Mr. Newsom’s excessive Covid lockdowns, $16-an-hour minimum wage ($20 for fast-food employees) and energy policies.
Mr. Newsom handily won re-election two years ago and beat back a 2021 recall. Not because he has any particular political skill but because California is a one-party state—and is becoming more so as its policies drive off people who don’t want to live under them. New Internal Revenue Service data show that in 2022 more than 300,000 Californians on net moved to other states—mostly Texas, Florida, Arizona and Nevada—taking $23.8 billion in income with them.
People generally don’t flee flourishing democracies for fascist dictatorships. The folks Mr. Newsom is driving to other states are also the voters Democrats need to win in November. But Mr. Newsom doesn’t realize this because he ascended California’s political ranks thanks mainly to the support of well-heeled family friends such as the Gettys.
He has never had to appeal to voters outside his progressive bubble. As the Los Angeles Times explained in a 2018 profile, “Gavin Newsom wasn’t born rich, but he was born connected—and those alliances have paid handsome dividends throughout his career. A coterie of San Francisco’s wealthiest families has backed him at every step of his political rise.”
Messrs. Biden and Newsom both live in oblivion, but the California governor’s delusion is by choice.