Young men could boost Trump to victory—if they show up

Young men vote at far lower rates than many other demographic groups. They are more likely than older generations and their female peers to be disconnected from politics, and they are increasingly disillusioned with the country’s institutions, according to researchers and election analysts.

Youth voting increased in the 2020 presidential election, but it paled compared with the share of older voters who showed up at the polls. In 2020, 18- to 24-year-olds were the least likely age group to vote, with just over half of that cohort voting that year, according to U.S. Census Bureau surveys. In that age group, fewer men than women said they voted in 2020. In contrast, about three-quarters of Americans ages 65 to 74 reported voting in 2020.

“I’ve had to ask a couple of my friends to come out and vote," said Joompit Nakhapakorn, 23, a consultant in Milwaukee who attended Trump’s rally there on Friday evening. “They’re like, ‘Do I have to vote? Is it a good use of my time?’"

Throughout his presidential campaign, Trump has taken pains to appeal to young men, from showing up at a sneaker convention in Philadelphia and an Ultimate Fighting Championship event in New Jersey, to appearing on Joe Rogan’s podcast. On Thursday, he received the endorsement of the social-media influencer and boxer Jake Paul, who has 20 million subscribers on YouTube. The strategy could help offset Kamala Harris’s big advantage with female voters—but risks widening that gap should Trump’s macho rhetoric and crude comments alienate women.

In interviews with dozens of young men around the country in recent months, some said they don’t see a place for themselves in today’s Democratic Party. Others said they are drawn to Trump’s politically incorrect approach. Many said they were focused foremost on their finances—with several arguing that Trump would do more to benefit their stock portfolios. Others said they appreciated the former president’s pledge to crack down on illegal immigration.

Luke Meihack, 25, a high school physical education teacher in the Milwaukee suburbs, said he didn’t used to be a Trump supporter, but changed his mind during Joe Biden’s presidency, and said many men his age are moving in the same direction.

“It’s mostly guys. Guys are more big into Trump," he said. “He’s a guy that speaks in a way that demands respect, and that appeals to a lot of guys."

Not all of his peers are planning to vote, he said. “I’m still in a group chat with a bunch of my guys from high school. There’s maybe like eight or nine of them, and like two or three of them have said they’re not voting," he said. “Some of them say, ‘I don’t care either way.’"

Meihack, who listened to Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance’s interview with Rogan while driving to the Trump rally on Friday, said he follows political news through social-media platforms including X and podcasts aired by the Daily Wire, a media company co-founded by the political commentator Ben Shapiro.

He said the top issue he cares about is immigration. “I love immigration. I think that’s actually what makes America special. We’re a melting pot of different cultures," he said. “I just don’t want criminals and murderers coming to America."

In the final days of the election, Harris is focusing in part on turning out women, who are statistically more likely to vote than men. Her campaign strategists are betting that abortion rights and giving women freedom over their bodies are more motivating messages to women than Trump’s closing argument is to men.

Harris on Sunday is set to campaign in Michigan, including at a rally at Michigan State University. Trump is due to hold events in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.

Harris campaign officials argue that Trump’s 11th-hour messaging is backfiring. The former president’s hourslong rally at Madison Square Garden turned off undecided voters, according to the Harris campaign’s internal data. The comedian Tony Hinchcliffe referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage," one speaker said Harris has “pimp handlers," and another called her the Antichrist. At the Milwaukee rally Friday, Trump made what appeared to be a lewd gesture, shaking the microphone stand back and forth and then bobbing his head up and down.

Undecided voters in swing states who made up their mind in recent days are backing the vice president by a double-digit margin, Harris campaign officials said, citing their internal data.

Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally was heavy on ubermasculine rhetoric and imagery, and it featured speeches from UFC Chief Executive Dana White and the former professional wrestler Hulk Hogan, who entered the arena carrying an American flag and tore his shirt off.

“The energy of all these Trump-a-maniacs is the most powerful force in the universe, and today this is Donald Trump’s house, brother," Hulk bellowed from the stage, gesturing at the crowd.

Some Trump supporters were turned off by the event. “It was too bro-tastic!" said the conservative broadcaster Megyn Kelly. She warned that the spectacle would alienate women, adding: “We don’t need to rally the base—or guys—anymore."

Harris’s campaign has touted prominent endorsements of its own, including the basketball star LeBron James, who threw his support behind the vice president Thursday. Polling from the Democratic-aligned strategy firm Blueprint found earlier this year that James would be the most influential celebrity political endorsement among young men.

A large survey of young voters released recently by the Institute of Politics at Harvard University found that Harris leads Trump by 20 points among registered voters under 30. Among 18- to 29-year-old men who say they will definitely vote, Harris leads Trump 55% to 38%. Trump has a solid 11-point lead over Harris among 18- to 29-year-old men who are less certain about voting, making young male turnout a crucial factor for the former president.

“If you have a traditional electorate, Harris will win young men, likely by double digits," said John Della Volpe, the Institute of Politics polling director. “If Trump expands the electorate in similar ways that he did in 2016, it could be a different story."

He estimated that Trump could do 5 to 7 points better among young men than he did in 2020—if they show up.

“These young men are telling us they are disaffected from politics," he said. “They’re incredibly skeptical, among the most skeptical among us. So encouraging them to participate in an institution they don’t trust is hard."

Write to Andrew Restuccia at andrew.restuccia@wsj.com and Michelle Hackman at michelle.hackman@wsj.com