Abandoned SpaceX rocket to accidentally crash into moon on August 5: The impact, significance and more

A drifting SpaceX rocket, which launched a pair of lunar landers more than a year ago, is on a collision course with the moon next week. As per a report, the rocket could hit the near side of the lunar surface in the early hours of August 5 (UTC) and form a crater there.

The abandoned rocket segment — measuring some 40 feet (12 meters) and weighing around 10,000 pounds (4,500 kilograms) — hoisted two private lunar landers on January 15, 2025.

With its work done, the rocket lacked the fuel to return to Earth or move into deep space. It remained in an unstable orbit until gravity finally set it on a collision course with the lunar surface, The Conversation reported.

What could be the possible impact?

Space tracking expert Bill Gray reportedly predicted an impact of 5,400 mph (8,700 kph) — seven times the speed of sound — near Einstein Crater on the moon’s sunlit western limb.

According to The Associated Press, the rocket's upper stage will unintentionally slam into the moon on Wednesday (August 5), carving out a crater and sending up a plume of dust and rubble that scientists — and skygazers — are eager to observe.

The upcoming smashup will occur on the moon’s near side, packing the equivalent energy of three tons of TNT. The impact flash could last less than a second, and will probably be too dim to see, according to experts.

But the stream of ejected material could stretch for several miles (kilometers) into space and remain visible to telescopes for tens of minutes.

Los Alamos National Laboratory’s Benjamin Fernando anticipates an impact crater nearly 90 feet across and 16 feet deep (27 meters across and 5 meters deep), too small to see from Earth but visible to spacecraft.

Accidental crash: Who can watch?

SpaceX never intended to hit the moon. But space experts said the crash could have been avoided if the upper stage had been nudged into orbit around the sun.

It will be the second dead rocket known to crash into the moon accidentally. A Chinese rocket segment dug out a pair of craters on the lunar far side in 2022.

With the action unfolding in the wee hours, the eastern portions of the US and Canada, and much of South America should have the best views, the Associated Press reported.

Meanwhile, NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter will gather before-and-after shots of the crash scene.

Danuri will stray within a mile or two (a few kilometers) of the SpaceX rocket just two minutes before impact, according to Fernando and his team.

NASA hurled rocket sections and lunar modules into the moon during the Apollo era for seismic measurements. Decades later, in 2009, NASA intentionally crashed its LCROSS spacecraft and upper stage in search of ice near the lunar south pole.

A rare scientific opportunity

For astronomers, the accident offers scientists a rare chance to study exactly what happens when something impacts the Moon.

The crash may provide data to improve computer models of how craters form and how lunar dust behaves.

“The gravity on the moon is low and there is no wind to blow the dust away,” said Los Alamos National Laboratory’s Benjamin Fernando, who’s encouraging observations by professionals and amateurs alike.

“Part of the reason for our interest in this event is to figure out how much of a hazard debris impacts pose to future astronauts,” he told AP in an email.

It's getting 'crowded up there'

While scientists are not too concerned about this particular piece of space junk, it highlights the growing threat as more and more items cram into orbit.

“Things are getting crowded up there,” Gray, who plans to view the aftermath from New Brunswick, Canada, was quoted as saying.

With the moon as the new travel hot spot, scientists said it’s crucial to improve debris monitoring and traffic control before packs of robots and astronauts arrive.

The United States and China are racing to land astronauts on the moon in the next few years. Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin are vying to provide the lander for NASA's yet-to-be-named moonwalkers of Artemis IV, who will succeed the 12 Apollo astronauts who strolled the lunar surface.

“This impact will not be a problem,” retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell said in an email. “But in a future where there are long-term bases on the moon, similar impacts would be an issue and we need not to leave rocket stages in chaotic orbits of this kind.”