DHARAMSALA, India—The Dalai Lama arrived on a golf cart and smiled and waved to the throngs of devotees who had gathered amid the pine trees of the Himalayan foothills to greet him at his home in exile after knee-replacement surgery in the U.S.
The 89-year-old Tibetan spiritual leader climbed out and made his way on foot into the temple complex with the help of young monks supporting his weight. One devotee, Dolma Jangchup, said she was relieved that he appeared stronger than at an appearance the previous week, when he was in the throes of a cold.
“I had never seen him so weak,” said Jangchup, 62. “He is our only guru in this world and it was so painful to see him like that.”
Behind concerns about the Dalai Lama’s health is a looming succession battle between Tibetans in exile and Beijing, which controls Tibet and accuses the Dalai Lama of being a separatist who seeks his homeland’s independence from China.
To much of the world, the Nobel Peace laureate is a spiritual guide and a forceful advocate for the religious freedom and human rights of Tibetans in China.
Upon the death of the Dalai Lama, the institution could transfer from one of the most widely recognized figures on the planet to an unknown child—or perhaps unknown children, as China and exiled Tibetans are likely to each recognize their own candidate.
“From the Chinese perspective, it doesn’t matter whether the Dalai Lama chooses his successor or not,” said B.R. Deepak, a professor of China studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. “The Chinese will follow this convention of having their own Dalai Lama.”
Meanwhile, the Dalai Lama is paving the way for a succession process unlike any in the history of Tibetan Buddhism. The current Dalai Lama was identified by monks as the reincarnation of the 13th Dalai Lama when he was around two years old—the traditional path employed over centuries.
With Beijing threatening to intercede, the next reincarnation could take a very different path.
The Dalai Lama has previously said that when he is around 90 years old he intends to consult with other senior monks and decide what is to become of the institution, including whether there should be another Dalai Lama. He has raised the possibility that his successor could be chosen by a pre-emptive reincarnation—one found while he is still alive. Another possibility is that of an “emanation,” which could potentially be an adult, rather than a child, and also could be found while the Dalai Lama is still alive.
“This is all new territory. This has never happened with Dalai Lamas,” said Robert Barnett, a scholar of contemporary Tibetan history and politics at SOAS University of London. These options could potentially give the current Dalai Lama and exiled Tibetans more control over the succession, Barnett added.
The Dalai Lama has also said that the reincarnation won’t be found in a place where Tibetans aren’t free. The Dalai Lama has been based in India since fleeing there in 1959. China has consolidated its control over Tibet since sending troops into the region in 1950.
That puts China’s Communist Party, which requires its members to be atheists, in a key role in determining the course of a centuries-old religious institution. Beijing argues that this is a continuation of the authority once held by rulers of the Qing dynasty to confer titles on previous Dalai Lamas and other Tibetan lamas.
China has done as much before with the Panchen Lama, considered the second-highest reincarnate lama in the Dalai Lama’s school of Tibetan Buddhism. Tibetan and Chinese authorities held talks to arrange for a succession amenable to both sides, but in 1995, after the Dalai Lama recognized a 6-year-old boy as the 11th Panchen Lama, Chinese authorities took the boy into custody. He and his family haven’t been seen in public since. Religious authorities backed by Beijing installed a different boy as the state-approved Panchen Lama.
“It is the model for what they’re going to do this time,” said Barnett.
Back-channel talks are taking place in a third country involving interlocutors for China and the Tibetan government-in-exile, according to a Tibetan official, who sought to lower any expectations about the outcome. The Dalai Lama’s secretary said the spiritual leader’s office is kept informed about the talks but not directly involved.
Amid tensions between the U.S. and China over flashpoints such as Taiwan and the South China Sea, the U.S. has been pushing for direct talks between the Dalai Lama and Chinese officials. The Dalai Lama met with senior U.S. officials while he was in the U.S. last month.
In his spiritual teachings on Thursday, the Dalai Lama didn’t discuss politics or his succession, though from time to time he referred to himself as an exile. It is unclear if he will ultimately issue a decision on his succession, or when any instructions might be made public.
The audience, some with hands folded reverentially while others sipped tea distributed by the monks, listened rapt for about 45 minutes as he spoke about what it means to be a 21st-century Buddhist and how to cultivate peace of mind, using logic and critical thinking.
“Conditions may be adverse,” he said. “But you can turn them in your favor.”
Some devotees say it is too soon to be thinking about a successor to the Dalai Lama, who has assured his followers that he would live for another two decades.
Earlier this month, a group of Buddhist devotees held a ceremony for the Dalai Lama offering prayers for a long life. The group was from Tawang district in the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh—a region bordering China that Beijing claims as its own South Tibet. Tawang is where the sixth Dalai Lama, a child of a local nobleman, was discovered in the 17th century.
Karmu, a 55-year-old Buddhist from Tawang who goes by one name, pointed to the current Dalai Lama’s prediction that he will live an unusually long life.
“We want him to live up to the 113 years that he has said himself,” she said. “The longer he lives the better it is for us.”
Krishna Pokharel, Austin Ramzy, Tripti Lahiri