Rishu Goswami farms six acres of land in Bilawar, a village in Kathua district of Jammu and Kashmir. Agriculture is his only income. For years, he has watched it rain at the wrong time.
“It no longer rains as it used to,” he said. “Either it rains when it is not needed, like during the crop-cutting season, or it does not rain when it is needed. This year, it did not rain when it was needed, but during wheat harvesting, it poured, and I suffered 40% losses.”
A reliable water source is what farmers in Kathua need. However, "forget water for irrigation. Many people in the outskirts of the district still walk two kilometres to get drinking water,” the 36-year-old said.
Goswami’s situation highlights a gap that has persisted for more than six decades in Jammu and Kashmir, a Union territory where nearly 70% of the population depends on agriculture, directly or indirectly, yet whose irrigation system has seen little progress.
In 1960, the state, according to a 2023 study, could irrigate 274,000 hectares of agricultural land. By 2020, that figure stood at 318,890 hectares, a rise of just 16% over more than six decades. Canal irrigation in Kashmir, the primary method, expanded by less than 4%.
J&K's agriculture remains overwhelmingly rain-dependent despite the region’s river wealth. Locals blame the Indus Waters Treaty.
Signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan and brokered by the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty divided the six rivers of the Indus system between the two countries. India received full rights over the three eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. Pakistan received the three western rivers: Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, with India permitted limited, non-consumptive use.
The arrangement has long drawn resentment in the state. The western rivers, Jhelum and Indus, flow through the Kashmir Valley, but, under treaty terms, their waters flow largely to Pakistan.
A 2005 study by the Sir Rattan Tata Trust and the International Water Management Institute estimated that the treaty cost the state approximately ₹6,500 crore annually in foregone agricultural and hydropower potential. The J&K legislative assembly passed a resolution in 2002 calling for the termination of the treaty. Eventually, India put the treaty in abeyance in 2025 following the Pahalgam terror attack.
However, scientists caution that the terrain itself sets hard limits on how much any treaty or dam can help.
Unique terrain, unique solutions
Riyaz Ahmad Mir, scientist-in-charge at the National Institute of Hydrology's Western Himalayan Regional Centre in Jammu, explained that large canal-based systems like those that transformed Punjab's plains can not be replicated in J&K.
“Expanding irrigation potential in the region is naturally constrained by steep terrain, fragile geology, shallow soils and limited groundwater storage, making large canal-based systems technically difficult, risky and costly,” he said.
What is feasible, he argued, is an entirely different model, such as small-lift irrigation schemes, spring rejuvenation, micro-storage structures, and water-efficient methods like drip and sprinkler irrigation. “If implemented scientifically and with proper planning, these measures can significantly reduce dependence on rain-fed agriculture.”
For Shakeel Ahmad, an earth scientist and consultant at the Islamic University of Science and Technology, Kashmir, geography comes before politics. “Under the IWT, we cannot block water completely. Where will the water go?” he asked. “Pakistan is downstream, and Kashmir is upstream, so water sharing happens naturally. The terrain cannot be changed, and nothing can be done about that.”
His point is not that the treaty is defensible, but that its abeyance does not override hydrology.
The clearest near-term beneficiary is the Shahpur Kandi dam, a project stuck in various stages of planning, dispute and partial construction since 1979. Located on the Ravi river at the Punjab-J&K border in Pathankot, it was declared a national project in 2008 and repeatedly stalled due to interstate disagreements between the two states. The Centre intervened in 2018 to resolve the dispute. Today, 98% of the work is complete, and reservoir filling has begun.
The dam, standing 55.5 metres high with an installed capacity of 206MW, is designed to prevent approximately two million acre-feet of Ravi water from flowing unused into Pakistan. Once commissioned, it will channel 1,150 cusecs of water to irrigate 32,173 hectares of farmland in Kathua and Samba districts through the Main Ravi Canal. Punjab will receive 80% of the power generated and irrigation for an additional 5,000 hectares.
- Worsening erratic rainfall patterns are damaging crop yields and deepening rural distress in J&K
- Despite abundant rivers, J&K’s irrigation system has expanded only marginally over six decades
- The Indus Waters Treaty has shaped river usage in the region, limiting local control over western rivers
- Experts say steep terrain, fragile geology and limited groundwater make large canal-based irrigation systems unsuitable for J&K
- Shrinking snowfall and glacier loss are further worsening water stress, making small-scale and efficient irrigation systems more viable
J&K water resources minister Javeed Rana described the project as a priority. “The excess water from the Ravi river that flows to Pakistan will be stopped and diverted to Kathua and Samba districts, which are drought-hit areas. The project will benefit areas including Kathua, Bilawar, Basohli and Hiranagar, protecting Kharif crops affected by summer water shortages.”
Former J&K finance minister Haseeb Drabu welcomed the development. “IWT abeyance will have a huge impact through irrigation in Punjab and some areas of Jammu,” he said. “It is a strategic decision, but it also has economic implications. If water is utilized properly, it can strengthen agriculture in some regions.”
Drabu added that the dam could make reaping the benefits of the treaty's abeyance possible, since water from the dam can be utilized for irrigation farming in north India.
Rakesh Sharda, project coordinator at ICAR-Central Institute of Post Harvest Engineering & Technology (CIPHET), Ludhiana, pointed to the dam’s significance for Punjab as well, where groundwater depletion has reached critical levels.
“A motor that needed 5 horsepower 50 years ago now requires 30 horsepower,” he said. “Borewells that needed just five feet of digging in 1980 now go down to 300 feet.”
The rising cost of extraction through higher power consumption or diesel use has sharply increased irrigation expenses for farmers. Canal water from projects like Shahpur Kandi, Sharda said, can help offset this stress. “Surface water can supplement groundwater and reduce input costs,” he said.
However, according to Mir, the increased surface water supply from dams benefits Punjab and J&K very differently. “In Punjab, increased surface water supply can help reduce groundwater over-extraction and promote aquifer recovery if managed through conjunctive use.”
“In J&K, groundwater benefits remain localized, owing to shallow, fractured aquifers and limited storage capacity,” he said.
He added that long-term sustainability depends on maintaining environmental flows, maintaining sediment continuity, and implementing climate-adaptive reservoir operations. "Otherwise, benefits may be temporary or short-lived.”
The real challenge: Climate change
For the Kashmir Valley, the picture is more complicated than the dam narrative suggests.
Rakib Yousuf, an irrigation specialist based in Kashmir, explained the geography directly. “J&K falls in the upper riparian zone, and Shahpur Kandi dam is downstream in Punjab, which means it will primarily benefit Punjab, Haryana and some areas of Kathua. To give benefits to the people of Kashmir under IWT, water reservoirs need to be made in the Valley, particularly in Ganderbal district, if feasibility allows."
Of the six rivers in the Indus system, the Jhelum and Indus flow through Kashmir, yet their waters go primarily to Pakistan. “Kashmir Valley faces the most injustice among all,” he said. “Instead of putting the IWT in abeyance, the government needs to actually amend the treaty, because water sharing is not adequate as it stands.”
Ghulam Jeelani, Dean of the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Kashmir, framed the irrigation question within a longer climate horizon. He warned that the region’s water crisis is no longer just about infrastructure but also about climate change.
“Snow is a natural storage of water. It melts gradually till August. But with back-to-back dry winters, this cycle is breaking,” he said.
Declining snowfall and shrinking glaciers are shortening the window of water availability, according to him. “If this trend continues, snow may last only till May in the coming years. That will intensify water scarcity,” he said, adding that storage structures like dams and reservoirs will become increasingly critical to capture rainwater and regulate flows.
Similarly, Mir, from a hydrological standpoint, said that declining snow cover and shrinking glaciers are making river flows more seasonal and less predictable. “While dams and control structures can help manage short-term fluctuations, they cannot fully compensate for the long-term loss of glaciers and snowmelt that naturally sustains river systems.”
The infrastructure being built to capture more water is doing so in a basin that may have less water to offer over time. “Sustainable irrigation planning should focus on flexible reservoir operation, protecting minimum river flows, reducing water demand, promoting local storage and improving water-use efficiency,” Mir suggested.
Given the terrain, fragile geology, and limited groundwater storage, the most reliable path to reducing rain-fed agriculture is not large infrastructure but a distributed network of small lift-irrigation schemes, spring rejuvenation, and micro-storage, combined with drip and sprinkler systems that reduce water demand per hectare. “These approaches can improve water security at the sub-basin and micro-watershed scale,” Mir said.
The Tulbul Navigation Barrage project on Wular Lake, halted since 1987 after Pakistani objections under the IWT, has also become a point of discussion in J&K politics.
After the 2025 Pahalgam attack, chief minister Omar Abdullah pushed for the resumption of the treaty since its suspension. The project would regulate Jhelum water levels, enable year-round navigation and improve winter power generation.
Abdul Aziz Malla, who lives near the lake, put it in immediate terms. “Back-to-back snowless winters have reduced the lake's water levels. Not only are fish struggling to survive, but chestnut cultivation is also affected, impacting the local economy dependent on fishing and allied activities.”
Malla said that if work on the project restarts, Wular's water levels will be maintained, which will help both irrigation and the livelihoods of fishermen.
However, Tejveer Singh, spokesperson of the Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) Shaheed Bhagat Singh, argued that infrastructure alone will not solve the irrigation crisis, particularly in Punjab.
Singh, who cultivates 20 acres in Ambala, questions whether the government can realistically regulate river flows under the IWT as it claims. “Instead of focusing on the treaty, the government should address groundwater management in Punjab, which is already in distress.”
“Water is increasingly getting polluted due to industrial activity. Regulations are not being enforced, and as a result, Punjab risks losing its identity as a fruit bowl and turning into an industrial bowl,” he added.
For Kashmir, Ahmad argued that the more urgent priority has been entirely neglected. Given the water challenges the valley faces, groundwater requires immediate attention over the next five years for both irrigation and drinking water.
Sustainable solution: Water conservation
“First, mapping should be done to find out how much we are recharging,” Ahmad, who has also served as professor (M.K. Gandhi Chair) at the Centre for Disaster Management in the Department of Geography at Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, said.
“Nothing has been done regarding groundwater development and protection.” Without knowing what the aquifers hold and how fast they are being drawn down, he said, any expansion of irrigation rests on an unexamined foundation.
Yousuf echoed the view. “Water resources need proper management. Water is available in Kashmir, but in some areas it is downstream and not needed, while in other areas there is no water. Lift irrigation schemes are the need of the hour to make maximum use of existing water resources.”