Wall Street Mobilizes for a Presidential Election, Reluctantly

Still, bankers and their ilk enjoy easy access to candidates and spend millions encouraging those with business-friendly policies, such as protecting the favorable tax treatment of private-equity profits.
Still, bankers and their ilk enjoy easy access to candidates and spend millions encouraging those with business-friendly policies, such as protecting the favorable tax treatment of private-equity profits.

Summary

  • The finance set wants a business-friendly challenger to Biden and Trump

On a farm in upstate New York last weekend, Wall Street types groused about the coming presidential election in between bites of roast pig.

Billionaire money manager Mario Gabelli and banker Ralph Schlosstein were among the guests at former Honeywell Chief Executive David Cote’s Carnivore’s Ball—a celebration of all things meat—that featured lively discussions of potential business-friendly candidates who could shake up the 2024 race. A few meat-lovers spent the evening urging Ray McGuire, the Lazard president and former New York City mayoral candidate, to run.

With less than a year until the primaries, politicians’ wealthiest benefactors are sizing up the presidential hopefuls soliciting their donations. But many on Wall Street find the prospect of a Biden-Trump rematch unappetizing.

Wall Street likes Biden’s steady hand and cabinet picks like Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, but his aggressive stance on antitrust enforcement has turned off potential backers whose profits depend on a healthy supply of corporate deals. And while another Trump term could deliver the traditional Republican goodies of lower taxes and less regulation, financiers are worried that the former president’s unpredictability could wreak havoc on global markets.

“Everybody is hoping for a miracle," said one senior deal-maker, one of more than 20 people that The Wall Street Journal spoke with to gauge Wall Street’s mood around the election. “Nobody wants Biden, and nobody wants Trump."

A Trump campaign spokesman said the former president is supported by Americans from all backgrounds.

With the rise of online fundraising and its ability to reach the masses, Wall Street’s money is less important to candidates than it used to be. Still, bankers and their ilk enjoy easy access to candidates and spend millions encouraging those with business-friendly policies, such as protecting the favorable tax treatment of private-equity profits.

Reliably blue financiers such as Centerview’s Blair Effron, Blackstone’s Jonathan Gray and deal-maker Antonio Weiss are expected to support President Biden, even as others quietly float long-shot names to replace him on the Democratic ticket. Jamie Dimon, whose name has swirled as a potential candidate for years, recently got an earful from a fellow billionaire who wishes the JPMorgan Chase CEO would run, according to people familiar with the matter.

(Though Dimon did say in a 2018 appearance that he could beat Trump, he acknowledged he would be a tough sell with liberal Democrats. He apologized for the remarks soon after. Last week, he told shareholders that he will remain at JPMorgan for the foreseeable future.)

Meanwhile, Wall Street Republicans are reluctant to support former President Donald Trump and are mulling other options, including Ron DeSantis. The Florida governor made his candidacy official Wednesday with a botched reveal on Twitter alongside Elon Musk. DeSantis has yet to win over many in the business community, in part due to his escalating legal battle with Walt Disney.

Another GOP candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, is one of Wall Street’s own, with stints at Goldman Sachs and a hedge fund before launching a biotech firm. But his financial pedigree hasn’t been enough to overcome his far-right stances on some social issues. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman backed away from an earlier prediction that the “Woke, Inc." author would win the 2024 election, but said Ramaswamy is still better than the current alternatives.

“To be clear, I prefer @VivekGRamaswamy to @realDonaldTrump @GovRonDeSantis and @POTUS and would vote for him if those were the choices," Ackman tweeted. “I just think the country would benefit by a candidate whose views and policies were closer to the center where I believe the majority is."

South Carolina Republicans Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott have been making pilgrimages to New York and Palm Beach for one-on-ones with the biggest donors, such as Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman, and group coffee chats with the rest.

“I am hoping it is not Trump," said Ken Langone, the billionaire financier who co-founded Home Depot, as he left lunch at Fresco by Scotto in Midtown Manhattan last week. The one-time Trump supporter disavowed the former president after the Jan. 6 riots. He said he is closely watching DeSantis and others in the field, similar to Citadel founder Ken Griffin, one of the biggest Republican donors.

One longtime Wall Street Republican said he has accepted that Trump is his party’s likely nominee. “I’m no longer badmouthing him," he said.

No Labels, a group focused on supporting centrist lawmakers, has been steadily adding Wall Street supporters. Founded in 2010, the group took off in 2016 when it launched a coalition of super PACs with the help of a quartet of billionaires including investor Nelson Peltz and hedge-fund manager Louis Bacon. Zoom fundraising events during the pandemic attracted new followers in the finance set.

No Labels is considering running a moderate like West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin as an independent candidate. And Manchin appears to be entertaining the idea. At this year’s Milken Institute Global Conference, a gathering the titans of finance pay a minimum of $25,000 apiece to attend, one attendee said Manchin seemed to share his cellphone number with anyone who would take it.

“I’m not taking anything off the table…And I’m not putting anything on the table," Manchin told CBS News in March when asked about a presidential run.

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