Asia Cup 2025 final: Will Law of Averages end India's unbeaten run, stopping Abhishek Sharma's victory chariot?

India will take on Pakistan in the Asia Cup 2025 final on September 28. This will be the third encounter of the tournament between the archrivals. The Men in Blue have won the previous two games.

Meanwhile, some Indian cricket fans are worried about the Law of Averages. Since India have been undefeated throughout the tournament, they are wary about the outcomes of the final.

What is Law of Averages?

The Law of Averages is a popular idea. It says that if something happens less often than expected, it is “due” soon. For example, if a coin lands Heads five times in a row, people may believe the next flip must be Tails to balance the results.

This is called the Gambler’s Fallacy because each coin flip is independent and has no memory of past flips. The chance of Heads or Tails remains 50% every time.

What people commonly call the Law of Averages is actually Regression to the Mean, a genuine concept in statistics.

India in 2023 ODI World Cup final

Many fans felt the “Law of Averages” had caught up with India in the 2023 ODI World Cup final. India won 10 straight matches before the final. In the final against Australia, several key players failed with bat and ball.

According to Regression to the Mean, this off-day was not fate or luck. It was rather a natural dip from their consistent highs.

India in 2024 T20 World Cup final

In the 2024 T20 World Cup final, the idea of the “Law of Averages” did not work against India even though it initially seemed like that. The Men in Blue won all the matches, including the final, in the tournament.

However, some fans believe the Law of Averages did work, but it favoured India. Virat Kohli, who had struggled all tournament, struck a match-winning 76.

Asia Cup 2025 final: What could go wrong for India?

If rhe “Law of Averages” works, India’s unbeaten run in Asia Cup 2025 may end in the final.. Abhishek Sharma, who has been unstoppable with 309 runs in 6 matches, might get out without scoring much.

Kuldeep Yadav, the tournament's top wicket-taker, may also face an off-day. Thus, India’s perfect streak against Pakistan could end.

Asia Cup 2025 final: What could go right for India?

For India, the “Law of Averages” could work positively in the Asia Cup 2025 final. Suryakumar Yadav has struggled this tournament. He may finally play a big, match-winning innings.

Shubman Gill is also due for a huge score after repeated starts. Jasprit Bumrah, below his usual best so far, could unleash a devastating spell.