Brazil vs Japan: Who will win FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash? Economist with perfect record makes bold prediction

Having last won a World Cup in 2002, Brazil's quest for a record sixth title enters the toughest stage as the five-time champions prepare to face Japan in a round of 32 clash in Houston on Monday. Desperate to lift the title that they won 24 years ago, Brazil eased past Morocco, Haiti and Scotland to finish on top of Group C, with Vinicius Junior playing a starring role.

The South Americans may be the favourites to progress to the last 16, but Japan are dangerous opponents and unlikely to make life easy in the first game of the day in Houston. Not to forget, Japan had defeated the likes of Spain and Germany in the previous edition on their way to round of 16.

With just few hours to go before the high-voltage clash, one Brazil vs Japan prediction has suddenly got viral among the fans. It's not from any animal like 'Paul the Octopus' in 2010, nor it is from any bookmaker or a chatbot. Instead, the prediction came from a economist named Joachim Klement.

Klement works at Panmure Liberum, a London-based investment bank, where he is positioned as the Head of Strategy, Economics & ESG. Using his econometric model, Klement puts out a World Cup prediction report every four years, taking into account a country's GDP per capita, population, temperature, host-nation advantage and current FIFA ranking points.

But believe it or not, Klement was correct in predicting the winners of the World Cups in the past three editions - Germany in 2014, France in 2018 and Argentina in 2022. Prior to the tournament, Klement's model had predicted that Brazil would face Japan in the round of 32.

The prediction became reality when Japan finished second in Group F behind leaders Netherlands, who Klement predicted to win the title this time.

Who will win Brazil vs Japan?

Based on Klement's model, the Brazil vs Japan is going to be one of major upsets in the tournament with the Asian giants knocking the South American giants out of the tournament for a place in the round of 16. “I am very very excited to see the Japan vs Brazil match, which I predicted for the last 32 as well. My model predicts that this will be one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history, where Japan might beta Brazil,” Klement told ESPN.

“Brazil clearly is favourite to win this match but it would be a surprise if Japan wins this match. But if I look back at the matches in the group stage, I have to say that Japan has performed as well if not better than what I expected,” added Klement, before arguing that Brazil had their weaknesses.

“They are a very competitive and disciplined team while Brazil had its weaknesses, particularly in the first match in the group stage. They have since improved and with Neymar back in the team, that will obviously help as well. I still expected Japan to be the surprise winner. Obviously, most likely, Brazil will win and I hope Brazilian fans would not be too mad with me.”

Brazil vs Japan head-to-head in football

Brazil have played Japan 14 times in international football, with the South American side enjoying a 11-1 win-loss record. Two games ended in draws. However, at the World Cup stage, Brazil won 4-1 against Japan in 2006 in their only appearance at the football's greatest show on earth.

However, in their last meeting, Japan edged past Brazil 3-2 in a FIFA friendly in October 2025.

Get all updates from FIFA World Cup 2026 here, along with FIFA World Cup 2026 Complete Schedule and FIFA World Cup 2026 Points Table.