Polymarket trader loses nearly $1M on Cabo Verde’s shock draw with Spain at World Cup

A single bettor on the prediction market platform Polymarket lost close to $1 million when Cabo Verde held European champions Spain to a draw on Monday. What oddsmakers viewed as a near-certain Spanish victory turned into one of the most unlikely results in the opening days of the World Cup.

Spain arrived as one of the strongest teams in the competition. A Goldman Sachs model gave them a 26% chance of winning the entire tournament. Cabo Verde, appearing in the World Cup for the first time and without any high-profile professional players, were heavy underdogs. The draw added to a string of surprising results, including Japan’s late equalizer against the Netherlands the previous day.

Vozinha delivers the performance of a lifetime

The standout figure for Cabo Verde was 40-year-old goalkeeper Josimar José Évora Dias, known simply as Vozinha. He produced seven decisive saves and was named player of the match.

Vozinha later explained that strict visa rules stopped his mother from attending his first World Cup game. Travellers from Cabo Verde now have to post a refundable bond of up to $15,000, which made the trip impossible for her. He described the match as the moment he had been working toward his “entire life.”

One massive bet turns into a costly lesson

Public trading records on Polymarket show that the trader, who used the screen name “betoor619,” placed a very large wager on Spain to win. The account was opened last October. Before this game, the user had never won or lost more than $9,000 on any single event.

At the time the bet was placed, Spain’s implied win probability stood at roughly 92%. A Spanish victory would have returned only about $85,000 in profit on the more than $1.1 million stake. The draw wiped out nearly the entire amount.

In total, Polymarket users traded $64 million on this one match. Other large bets on Spain were also placed, but many of those traders had offsetting positions that reduced their overall losses.

Prediction markets move into the sports spotlight

Platforms like Polymarket have grown quickly in recent years. They first gained attention for trading on politics and economic events, but now see heavy activity during major sports tournaments. Users trade with cryptocurrency wallets, which allows them to stay pseudonymous. The company has faced criticism from lawmakers for not collecting the same personal details required by traditional betting operators and brokerages.

These markets give a clear view of the size of bets people are willing to make. Some experienced traders act as market makers. They take positions on both sides of the same outcome to capture small differences in prices, much like stock traders on Wall Street.