Are Pakistan out of T20 World Cup 2026 race? Super 8 group 2 scenarios explained after NZ's 61-run win over SL

Pakistan's campaign in the ICC Men's T20 World Cup 2026 is teetering on the edge after New Zealand's dominant 61-run thrashing of Sri Lanka in Super 8 Group 2 on Wednesday (February 25). The Men in Green are not yet mathematically eliminated, but their semi-final hopes now rely on a chain of results.

What happened in the New Zealand vs Sri Lanka game?

New Zealand made 168/7. Mitchell Santner played a quick 47 runs off just 26 balls to lift the total. Then their spinners took control. Rachin Ravindra grabbed 4 wickets, and Santner helped Sri Lanka finish with 107/8 after 20 overs.

The victory not only eliminated the co-hosts but catapulted New Zealand's net run rate (NRR) to +3.050, creating a formidable buffer.

Current Super 8 group 2 standings

England (Qualified): Played 2, Won 2, Lost 0, NR 0, Points 4, NRR +1.491

New Zealand: Played 2, Won 1, Lost 0, NR 1, Points 3, NRR +3.050

Pakistan: Played 2, Won 0, Lost 1, NR 1, Points 1, NRR -0.461

Sri Lanka (Eliminated): Played 2, Won 0, Lost 2, NR 0, Points 0, NRR -2.800

England have locked in top spot and a semi-final berth with wins over Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Sri Lanka's exit is confirmed after back-to-back heavy defeats.

Pakistan's final chance and qualification scenarios

Pakistan's last group fixture is against Sri Lanka on February 28. Winning that game would give them 3 points and a chance to improve their NRR substantially. However, everything will depend on the February 27 game between England and New Zealand.

Favourable path for Pakistan

England win convincingly (damaging New Zealand's NRR), and Pakistan post a big-margin victory over Sri Lanka. If England, New Zealand, and Pakistan all end on 3-4 points, NRR becomes the decider, Pakistan would need an exceptional performance to overtake New Zealand's +3.050.

Elimination trigger

A New Zealand win (or no-result washout) pushes them to at least 4 points, securing the second semi-final spot and ending Pakistan's run immediately, no matter what happens in their final match.

Broader tournament impact

England are safely through. New Zealand have seized control with momentum and a sky-high NRR. Pakistan's title race has been plagued by inconsistency, weather, and now this steep qualification mountain.