For decades, quantum computing promised revolutionary breakthroughs while remaining stubbornly out of reach. Researchers struggled with unstable qubits, high error rates and daunting engineering challenges. The running joke in technology circles was that quantum computing, much like nuclear fusion, was always 20 years away.
However, recent advances in error correction, qubit stability and system architecture, led by companies such as Google, Microsoft and IBM, have challenged this long-held assumption. The effect is that governments are now scrambling to secure an early advantage in what is increasingly being viewed as the next major technology race.
This month, US President Donald Trump signed executive orders seeking to accelerate the development of a scientific-grade quantum computer in the US and prepare the country for a future in which quantum computers can crack today's encryption systems.
At stake is not just the next generation of computing, but potentially the future balance of technological and geopolitical power. Mint explains.
What did Trump announce?
Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump signed two executive orders aimed at accelerating America's quantum ambitions and preparing for the security challenges quantum computers could create.
One order seeks to accelerate efforts to achieve a scientific-grade quantum computer by 2028, expand quantum sensing and networking, and deepen collaboration between government, academia and industry. The second focuses on preparing federal systems for a future in which quantum computers break widely used encryption standards.
The orders are part of a broader shift in the US government’s approach to quantum technologies. In May, the US government announced a $2 billion investment programme covering nine quantum-computing companies, including a $1 billion stake in a new IBM venture focused on quantum-chip manufacturing.
Why are governments betting big on quantum computing now?
Unlike conventional computers, which process information using bits that represent either 0 or 1, quantum computers use qubits that can exist in multiple states simultaneously. In theory, this allows them to solve certain classes of problems far faster than even the most powerful supercomputers of today.
For decades, quantum computing remained largely a research endeavour because getting it to work reliably at scale proved enormously difficult. That assumption is now being challenged. Papers from Google Quantum AI and startup Oratomic this year suggested advances in error correction and algorithms could dramatically reduce the number of qubits required. Some estimates suggested breaking modern encryption may require 10,000-26,000 highly interconnected qubits rather than the millions previously thought necessary.
The findings came after Google's Willow breakthrough, which demonstrated what researchers call ‘below-threshold’ error correction, a milestone at which adding more qubits reduces errors rather than increasing them. Microsoft, meanwhile, unveiled Majorana 1, which it said could support more stable and scalable quantum systems.
What is China doing?
The quantum race increasingly mirrors the US-China rivalry in AI, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing. China has spent more than a decade making quantum technologies a strategic national priority and is estimated to have invested over $15 billion in the field. In 2016, the country launched Micius, the world's first quantum communications satellite, allowing researchers to demonstrate quantum-encrypted communication over thousands of kilometres. It has since built what is believed to be the world's largest quantum communication network, linking Beijing and Shanghai through a 2,000-km quantum backbone.
In 2025, Chinese researchers unveiled Zuchongzhi 3.0, a 105-qubit superconducting quantum processor that they claimed performed certain calculations quadrillions of times faster than the world's most powerful classical supercomputers. China now accounts for a significant share of global quantum research and patents.
The US and China are not alone, though. The European Union has a €1 billion Quantum Flagship programme, while the UK has committed more than £2.5 billion to its national quantum strategy.
Why are governments and cybersecurity experts worried?
One reason governments are acting with such urgency is the prospect of ‘Q-Day’, the moment a sufficiently powerful quantum computer becomes capable of breaking many of the encryption systems that secure today's digital world.
Modern banking systems, government databases, military communications, power grids and much of the internet rely on encryption standards such as RSA and elliptic-curve cryptography. These systems are considered secure because even the world's most powerful supercomputers would take an impractically long time to crack them. Quantum computers could do this at in a fraction of that time.
There are also very real concerns about 'harvest now, decrypt later' attacks, in which adversaries, including spy agencies and cybercriminals, collect encrypted data today and store it for future decryption.
Governments are thus preparing years before such machines arrive. In 2024, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology finalised the world's first post-quantum cryptography standards, while governments and companies across the US, Europe and Asia have begun planning one of the largest cybersecurity migrations in history.
Where does India stand in the quantum race?
India entered the race later than some major powers but is trying to build capabilities across the quantum technology stack.
In 2023, the government approved the ₹6,003.65-crore National Quantum Mission, which seeks to develop capabilities in quantum computing, communications, sensing and advanced materials. The mission has established hubs at IISc Bengaluru, IIT Madras, IIT Bombay and IIT Delhi covering quantum computing, communications, sensing and materials research.
A small but growing startup ecosystem has also emerged. Bengaluru-based QpiAI introduced a 25-qubit quantum computer and is working on larger systems, while QNu Labs focuses on quantum-secure communication technologies.
In 2025, state-run telecom R&D organisation C-DOT and optical networking company Sterlite Technologies demonstrated India's first quantum-secured telecom network using quantum key distribution over optical fibre.
But India's challenge is not merely building research capability. The global race is increasingly shifting towards hardware, intellectual property and commercialization. Compared with the resources being deployed by the US and China, India's investments remain modest.
Whether quantum computers arrive in 5 years or 15, the race has already begun for governments around the world. The question is no longer whether quantum computing will materialize, but which countries will be prepared when it does.