Quantum computing is closer than ever. Everybody’s too busy to pay attention.

Pete Shadbolt, co-founder and chief scientific officer at PsiQuantum, at The Wall Street Journal CIO Network Summit in Menlo Park, Calif. ( Nikki Ritcher/WSJ)
Pete Shadbolt, co-founder and chief scientific officer at PsiQuantum, at The Wall Street Journal CIO Network Summit in Menlo Park, Calif. ( Nikki Ritcher/WSJ)

Summary

A technology that feels like it’s ‘always five years away’ may suddenly be two years away—but businesses are a little preoccupied.

MENLO PARK : PsiQuantum says it will have a commercially useful quantum computer available as soon as 2027. But whether businesses are ready to take advantage of that accelerated timeline is another story, according to a poll of tech executives at a Wall Street Journal event here.

The Palo Alto, Calif., startup is working to build quantum computers in Australia as well as Chicago, where it will be the anchor tenant of the planned Illinois Quantum and Microelectronics Park. And it is doing so by tapping into existing infrastructure used to build more conventional computers to help speed development, said Pete Shadbolt, a company founder and its chief scientific officer.

“That has really been our approach … to leverage the same fabs, the same contract manufacturers, as far as humanly possible the same networking and so on that is used in conventional data centers, conventional supercomputers," said Shadbolt Tuesday at the Wall Street Journal’s CIO Network Summit. “And we think that gives us a much faster path."

Within the next couple of years, he said, “The idea really is that we can dramatically accelerate the rate of innovation of those microscopic foundations of our biggest industries."

Companies have long recognized the powerful technology’s potential in areas such as drug discovery, finance, energy, aerospace and semiconductor manufacturing. Some firms are already building their own quantum algorithms and running them over simulators and early-stage machines in preparation for the day a commercial-grade quantum machine is available. PsiQuantum is also working with customers to develop quantum software that will ultimately run on the hardware of the future.

But tech leaders attending the Summit said they were more focused on other priorities, including getting AI to work reliably and parrying new Trump-era tech policies.

“It sounds fantastic. Seems like it’s always five years away, though," said Lawrence Fitzpatrick, chief technology officer of financial services firm OneMain Financial.

When polled on what they’re doing with quantum today, none of the attendees said they were actively pursuing any business uses for it. And when asked for the biggest factor holding them back from exploring quantum more, half the attendees said there was simply too much else to focus on right now, while 29% said they weren’t certain of the business value.

Shadbolt said he wasn’t particularly surprised.

“It is always going to be a very opaque, extreme technology which is used by a very limited set of technically elite people who are directly running code on the machine," he said. But the products of those computations—designs for new materials or new drugs, for example—will have an impact on businesses from pharmaceutical to automotive, he added.

Shadbolt did address one issue of greater concern to attendees: When will quantum computers be able to break the encryption used to protect the world’s most sensitive data?

No need to panic, he said. For one thing, efforts are underway to develop post-quantum cryptography. “There’s some debate as to how long that’s going to take and how robust it can be made," he said. “But I think generally there’s a lot of optimism that we will be able to make our current systems secure against the existence of big [quantum] systems."

But the other reason for calm is that the size of the computer needed for code-breaking is far larger than those used in commercial applications—so it will be easy to see the fateful Q-day approaching, Shadbolt said.

“There should be an economic-value warning sign," he added. “I used to own half of a Toyota Camry from 1997. If you ever see me driving up Sandhill Road in a Ferrari, then you know that it’s time to worry the next system’s coming, and it will be big enough."

Write to Isabelle Bousquette at isabelle.bousquette@wsj.com

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