There is a classic “Seinfeld” episode where Jerry thinks he has found the love of his life in a woman who is exactly like him: “Now I know what I’ve been looking for all these years—myself!”
Decades later, dating app companies have seized on research fostering that same “perfect” match. Two behavior-based studies published in 2017 concluded that romantic partners, like friends, often have similar personalities. Another study first published in 2008 found participants’ ideal romantic partner had personality scores similar to their own.
Cue the dizzying number of dating apps popping up over the past few years aiming to provide users with a smaller pool of similarity, distinct from an Amazon.com-like sea of choices present on more mainstream dating apps such as Tinder and Bumble.
There are apps specific to your profession, religion or choice in pets. EHarmony uses an algorithm to find matches for users based on a compatibility quiz. So Syncd is essentially designed to match based on your Myers-Briggs personality type. Even Match Group, which owns leading dating site Tinder, launched Stir last year, an app specifically built for single parents.
And no wonder: Tinder has been the world’s number one dating app in terms of revenue for nearly a decade. But its revenue growth was on pace to slow to single digits in 2022, based on results through the third quarter, compared with 43% growth in 2019. Now, investors are starting to question whether the so-called hookup app’s fire is finally fading. Match Group’s stock ended 2022 down 69%, due in large part to concerns over Tinder’s growth potential.
Despite the array of options focused on matching what is on the inside, tried and true Tinder—an app where users seem to match first and foremost by what is on the outside—still has the vast majority of the online dating world hooked. As of the third quarter, more than 11 million people paid for Tinder’s features on a global basis. Wall Street is estimating second-place dating app Bumble ended last year with just under two million paying users.
Pew Research’s data actually reads like a Tinder ad: Its 2019 survey of nearly 5,000 U.S. adults found both men and women seemed to value looks on dating profiles above all else.
Nearly three-quarters of women surveyed felt photos of the profiles they perused were very important. Less than half of both men and women felt whether suitors had children or shared the same hobbies and interests was a very important inclusion in profiles they viewed. Fewer than 20% of male respondents viewed occupation, religious beliefs, racial and ethnic background, or political affiliation as very important parts of a potential partner’s dating profile.
It might be that investors haven’t soured on Tinder so much as they have on dating app companies and, indeed, tech companies in general. Bumble’s stock fell 40% in 2022, even while its Bumble app revenue was still increasing nearly 28% year over year as of the third quarter. And gay dating app Grindr, which went public via a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company last year, is down 85% since its merger closed in November.
It might seem as if everyone you know is already on Tinder, but Match’s data shows a lot of potential runway still ahead. Even in the 10 largest markets in the U.S., Match said last year that just around 15% of eligible singles ages 18 to 24 years old on average were using Tinder on a monthly basis.
It is worth noting that even Tinder has evolved to include more thorough matching features and search options so that users can also seek matches by commonality. But the basic “swipe right” feature Tinder coined remains front and center of the app. That probably won’t change: Similarities, it seems, might be helpful but certainly aren’t sufficient for a lasting match. The same 2008 study actually found that, when explicitly asked, more than 85% of respondents said they actually preferred a complementary partner over a similar one.
Not surprisingly, Jerry Seinfeld’s infatuation with his female doppelgänger didn’t last.
“I can’t be with someone like me,” he concludes shortly after agreeing to a whirlwind engagement. “I hate myself!”
Wall Street, too, might find that good-enough Tinder is better than waiting for a more perfect match.