World Trade

As the old order begins to crumble and alliances are reshaped, the country must closely track the geopolitical dynamics of West Asia. India will have to work out how best to position itself in the new architecture of the 21st century.

Another day, another threat US President Donald Trump seems to have 'chickened out' of. This time, over his trade run-in with Canada. What are we to make of these flip-flops? And is Mark Carney’s game working?

Superficially, China seems to pursue mercantilist policies, but unlike Depression times, we are not in a world of deficient aggregate demand. Where manufacturing sectors are at threat, countries could deploy their own versions of Chinese industrial policy.

Seaborne trade chokepoints being leveraged or weaponized don’t bode well. The era of efficiency-driven globalization is giving way to one in which resilience, redundancy and maritime security shape the global order. India must focus on naval power.

While hard restrictions on retail investors investing money abroad have served the country well so far, it's time for a change. Let’s ease capital controls so that market forces can reward investors and reduce India’s macro instability on the external front.

India’s exports have gained thanks to FTAs but imports of crude oil and critical inputs have surged faster, exposing us to geopolitical and energy price shocks. New Delhi must strengthen domestic manufacturing and reduce external dependence.

A mild trade-off of principles for pragmatism is discernible in the World Trade Organization's (WTO) latest policy review of India. Trade turbulence calls for strategic flexibility—which is exactly why cynicism mustn’t harden in Indian policy circles.

The benefits of a fair, rules-based multilateral trade regime are evident in the economic prosperity it helps generate. The perils of protectionism and unilateralism are clear too. As trade principles get cast aside, people must recognize how it harms them.

The Hormuz crisis shows how quickly chokepoints can be weaponized. With the Strait of Malacca exposed to tensions between the US and China, Asia must put up a unified front to keep this trade passage free of threats.

As trade rules fall apart and geopolitical shocks disrupt supply chains, the WTO has been left as a hapless bystander. A resilience alliance could forge a network of trusted interdependence that serves mutual ends but leaves nobody vulnerable.