Oscars 2026: ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok pick likely winners — two films dominate

The 98th Academy Awards are set to take place on 15 March at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, with Hollywood’s biggest stars gathering for one of the most anticipated nights in cinema.

But before the envelopes are opened, artificial intelligence is already making its bets.

LiveMint asked three popular AI systems — ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini and Elon Musk’s Grok — to analyse the race and predict winners in six major categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay.

Interestingly, despite relying on different datasets and analytical approaches, the three models arrived at broadly similar conclusions. Their forecasts suggest that two films — One Battle After Another and Sinners — could dominate the ceremony.

AI predictions point to two dominant films

Both ChatGPT and Gemini predicted that Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another could win the top honour of the night, Best Picture.

The film has built strong momentum during awards season and is widely seen as a front-runner, especially after major precursor wins that often influence Oscar voting patterns.

Gemini highlighted that the film’s victory at the Producers Guild Awards — historically one of the strongest indicators for Best Picture — strengthens its chances.

Grok’s analysis, which aggregated predictions from awards experts, betting markets and industry trackers, also placed the film ahead in the race.

However, it noted that Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, which earned a record 16 nominations, remains a formidable challenger.

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson emerges favourite

Across all three AI models, Paul Thomas Anderson is the overwhelming favourite to win Best Director for One Battle After Another.

The prediction reflects a long-standing narrative in Hollywood that Anderson is “overdue” for an Oscar. The filmmaker has received multiple nominations over his career but has yet to win.

If he takes home the trophy this year, it would mark his first Academy Award.

Best Actor race tilts toward Michael B. Jordan

In the Best Actor category, the AI models predicted a victory for Michael B. Jordan for his performance in Sinners.

The role — widely praised by critics — has been gaining momentum during the awards season.

Grok’s analysis noted that Jordan’s chances improved in the final weeks of voting, putting him slightly ahead of Timothée Chalamet, who was previously considered a strong contender.

Jessie Buckley seen as Best Actress ‘lock’

In the Best Actress category, all three AI systems predicted Jessie Buckley to win for her performance in Hamnet.

The actor has swept several major awards this season, leading many analysts to describe her as the category’s strongest contender.

Gemini described her as the “lock of the night,” citing wins at major industry ceremonies.

Screenplay categories split between the two films

The AI predictions also suggest the Oscars could split major honours between the two leading films.

Ryan Coogler’s Sinners is widely tipped to win Best Original Screenplay, recognising its original story and strong critical reception.

Meanwhile, One Battle After Another is predicted to take Best Adapted Screenplay for Anderson’s complex adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s novel Vineland.

What ChatGPT predicted

ChatGPT’s forecast produced the following winners:

Gemini produced almost identical predictions, while Grok’s aggregated analysis also pointed to the same leading contenders across most categories.