Hurricane Melissa path: Storm to hit Jamaica this weekend; forecasts warn of flooding, landslides and coastal damage

Hurricane Melissa Path: Tropical Storm Melissa is picking up speed in the Caribbean. Jamaica is now almost right in its path. The National Hurricane Center said on Friday, 24 October, that it could hit hurricane strength soon—maybe even brush or strike the island this weekend.

Hurricane trackers narrow in on Hurricane Melissa’s path

The latest hurricane tracker puts Jamaica, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba under threat - but the NHC predicts Jamaica is likely to take the worst hit, with the strongest winds and heaviest rain.

Residents were urged to rush final preparations as a tropical storm warning remains in effect across the island. The NHC added that preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, warning that conditions could deteriorate by late Friday or early Saturday.

Spaghetti models predict Jamaica to take a severe hit

Forecast spaghetti models now cluster tightly around Jamaica. Andrew Hazelton, a scientist at the University of Miami, wrote on X that he is “becoming increasingly concerned” about the chance of a close pass or direct hit. “Overnight hurricane Melissa models have trended closer, and all show impacts on the island,” he noted.

The National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone shows several potential paths - one tracking just south of the island, another directly over it, and others skimming just north.

Meteorologists Bob Henson and Jeff Masters wrote in their Eye on the Storm blog that “totals exceeding 24 inches and localized amounts above 30 inches” are possible, which could lead to flash flooding and landslides.

Hurricane trends for Jamaica show rare but severe impacts

Historically, USA Today reported, a hurricane happens once every 10 to 11 years in Jamaica, according to government data. Close calls are more frequent, roughly every four years.

On average, Jamaica is hit by a hurricane about once every decade. The big ones—Ivan in 2004, Dean in 2007, Sandy in 2012—all were devastating, but Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 is one of the worst to hit Jamaica.

Now that Melissa’s path is tightening, officials are warning coastal residents to move inland and get ready. Airports are still open, but one shift in the storm’s track could change that fast.

FAQs

How often do hurricanes hit Jamaica?

On average, a major Jamaican hurricane occurs once every 10 to 11 years, according to government data.

What is the National Hurricane Center saying about Tropical Storm Melissa?

The NHC warns of a prolonged period of heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and damaging winds as the storm nears the island.

What do the Tropical Storm Melissa spaghetti models show?

Most spaghetti models place the storm directly near Jamaica, with paths ranging slightly north or south of the island.

How much rain is expected in Jamaica from Melissa?

Forecasts predict more than 24 inches of rain in some regions, with localized totals potentially exceeding 30 inches.