Tropical storm Melissa could bring strong winds and flooding to Caribbean islands this week: NHC issues alerts

As the weather in the US takes twists and turns, a tropical wave in the central Caribbean is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Melissa later on Tuesday, October 21, becoming the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Storm development and formation

As of 8 a.m. Tuesday, the NHC reported a 100% chance that Invest 98L will develop into a tropical storm within the next two days. Overnight, the system became more organized and developed a well-defined center, showing signs of strengthening. The storm is likely to form sometime on Tuesday, as per Fox35.

Forecast path: North hook likely

According to the Miami Herald, storm tracking models, often called “spaghetti models,” suggest that Melissa’s path will likely hook north through the Caribbean islands, rather than moving straight west toward Mexico. However, the exact track remains uncertain, with several islands possibly impacted depending on how the storm develops.

Areas at risk

According to the latest guidance, Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and possibly the Turks and Caicos and the southern Bahamas could face heavy rain, strong winds, and rough surf. Weather expert Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel noted that the wide range of possible tracks means residents in these areas should prepare for a long period of wind and rain before the storm makes landfall.

Monitoring and forecast updates

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the system later Tuesday to gather more data. The NHC will release an official forecast track and cone of uncertainty once Melissa is upgraded to a tropical storm.

Florida outlook

While the storm is getting stronger and intense in the Caribbean, there is relief for the residents of Florida; the state is not expected to see direct impacts at this time.

Residents across the Caribbean are advised to stay alert and keep a check on local updates, to be prepared for heavy rain, flooding, and strong winds as the storm moves through the region. Tropical Storm Melissa again reminds us that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is still on, and authorities continue to closely track developing systems.

FAQs

Q1: When will Tropical Storm Melissa form?

Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to form later on Tuesday, October 21, 2025, in the Caribbean Sea, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Q2: Which areas are likely to be affected by Tropical Storm Melissa?

The storm could impact Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and possibly the Turks and Caicos and the southern Bahamas. Florida is not expected to see direct effects at this time.

Q3: How can residents stay safe during Tropical Storm Melissa?

Residents should monitor local weather updates, prepare for heavy rain, flooding, and strong winds, and follow guidance from local authorities for safety measures.